Balls, Hollow Balls, and Hemispheres

I think that Wagner is becoming a frequently referenced company here.

Today, I cam calling them out because they sell hollow balls from 1 1/2" all the way up to 12" in steel, aluminium, stainless, brass and bronze, along with a smaller variety of solid balls, and hemispheres. I have sourced large metal balls for several projects - and of course the 1/2 steel balls are great for decorative finishes like rivets and add-on's.

If money was no object

I would have one of these. I can think of tons of fun things to do with one of these - and could definately see it's use around the shop, especially for props. Take a look at the PlasmaCam and see what you think.

50/50 estimate

I was taking a look at a new blog, Project Junction, and came across a bit that says that microsoft project assumes that when you estimate time that you estimate that it is a 50/50 chance that it will be correct. The blog goes on to say:

Very few people give you a 50/50 estimate when you ask for a task duration. Unless you train the estimators each person will give you their personal estimate based on his/her risk tolerance. It might be a 90% estimate from Ms. Risk Averse and a 30% estimate from Mr. Everything’s Easy.

I know that you can give the same set of drawings and infromation to multiple people and you will get different answers from everyone, but I am not sure that I think estimating to a 50% chance of meeting a deadline really works in our world where the deadline is less than flexible. This creates the challenge in estimating hours - it is easy to estimate a safe number of hours that will allow you to get the job done. And if you are held to the hours that are estimated, the hours will naturally lean towards less risk. It is hard to estimate tightly - where there is enough hours to complete, but the hours must be efficient and effective.

Thoughts?